Publicat pe 29/04/2020

In the context of the health crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the European Commission’s Directorate General for Trade has drawn up a report on the impact of Covid-19 virus on EU trade.

This analysis represents one of the few attempts at predicting the impact of the COVID19 outbreak on trade flows. In order to test the robustness of this analysis, results are also compared to the latest WTO trade forecasts published on 8 April.

The increasing spread of the virus has caused a significant amount of governments to introduce measures that shut down businesses temporarily and have restricted travel and the movement of people. These measures will lead to sharp contractions in the level of output, household spending, investment and international trade.

According to the analysis performed by DG TRADE’s Chief Economist team, it is estimated that in 2020 global trade will decrease by 9.7%. For the EU27, the predicted Covid-19 related economic contraction results in a reduction of 9.2% in extra-EU27 exports of goods and services, and an 8.8% decrease in extra-EU27 imports in 2020. In absolute terms, compared to the latest available statistics, this amounts to a reduction of exports by about 285 billion EUR and by 240 billion EUR in extra-EU imports (goods and services combined). Exports of primary sectors (other than energy) and services trade turn out to be less strongly affected than manufacturing sectors, most of which see export contractions above 10%. In particular, transport equipment and electrical machinery turn out to be more strongly affected.

The full report of the European Commission on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global and EU trade can be consulted here.