Publicat pe 06/02/2023

Bucharest, February 6, 2023: The international business community expects a year full of challenges, marked by geopolitical tensions, inflation and further supply chain challenges, according to the Global Economic Survey 2023 (GES 2023) conducted by The Association of European Chambers of Commerce (EUROCHAMBRES), to which the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Romania also contributed.

The report is based on responses from business representative organizations in countries accounting for approximately 70% of total global GDP. This qualitative analysis highlights among the main challenges for the global economy in 2023: the presence of prolonged geopolitical tensions and instability. The slowdown in global economic activity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and aggravated by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as well as the effects of these crises on energy markets, leads the international business community to predict a year full of challenges.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest forecasts for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 were generally much lower than those for 2022. These forecasts highlight the challenges companies continue to face as more one third of the global economy contracted in 2022 and this trend is expected to continue in 2023. The value of global economic growth is expected to decline from 3.2% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, resulting in thus, the weakest growth forecast since 2001, excluding the global financial crisis and severe pandemic period.

China hit its lowest four-decade growth in 2022 at 3.2% due to frequent shutdowns under its “zero Covid-19” policy. For 2023, the IMF forecasts China’s real GDP growth of 4.4 percent, while the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said it expects growth of 5 percent amid the easing of pandemic-related restrictions. In the US, economic growth forecasts, according to the IMF, are only 1%, while the US Chamber of Commerce claims that real GDP will grow by only 0.5%.

At the European level, countries such as Bulgaria (3%), Romania (3.1%) or Turkey (3%) are slightly optimistic about economic growth in 2023, while expectations in countries such as Germany or Great Britain are quite pessimistic. According to the forecast provided by the IMF, the German economy will contract by -0.3% in 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the significant reduction in Russian gas imports with direct effects on the economy. Among respondents to the GHG 2023 study, the UK stands out with the lowest economic growth forecast for 2023, at just 0.3%. According to the IMF, high inflation in the UK has reduced purchasing power and tightened monetary policy, impacting consumer spending and business investment. Finally, Great Britain’s exit from the European Union – Brexit – had a significant impact on the country’s economy. By the second quarter of 2022, UK GDP has fallen by 5.5%, investment by 11% and trade in goods by 7%.

In the context in which inflation reached, in 2022, records not seen for decades, the organizations representing the business environment in China, the Persian Gulf and Asia-Pacific mentioned that the level of confidence of companies, in 2023, is higher compared with the level of confidence of entrepreneurs in countries such as the USA, Brazil, Great Britain or Australia. Some of the challenges cited by US and UK respondents for the business environment are: rising inflation caused by rising energy prices, tightening global financial conditions and energy security, which was also perceived as a major challenge more chosen for EU member states. In addition, participants in the GHG 2023 study argue that energy and food security require solutions to be proposed and agreed upon in international formats such as the G20 and the World Trade Organization.

One of the most relevant conclusions of the GHG 2023 study points out that high energy prices have led companies around the world to increase investment in renewable energy production capacity and energy efficiency, which in turn increases resilience to price volatility and shortages. energy. The results of the study also indicate that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – adopted in 2022 – will have wide global ramifications, with participants outside the European Union identifying it as discriminatory against companies.

Both the Gulf Chambers Cooperation

Council Federation and the Union of Turkish Chambers and Commodity Exchanges have expressed concerns about the excessive administrative and financial burdens associated with the implementation of the CBAM, particularly on the hydrocarbon industry. In addition, Turkey expressed concern about the implications of this agreement as it is one of the main EU exporters of cement (38.6% of EU imports), aluminium and steel (12.6% of EU imports), noting that it will develop a emission certificate trading system similar to the European one.

Regarding the digitization of SMEs, one of the conclusions of the GES 2023 study refers to the importance of accelerating the process of digital transformation of SMEs, which is essential for the recovery and resilience of economies, as it increases the ability of enterprises to anticipate, react and adapts to shocks. According to the OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2020 study, small businesses generated an average of around 10% of their profits online, in contrast to large firms that generated 24% of their profits online. Although the Covid-19 pandemic has acted as a “catalyst” for the digitization of companies globally, the vast majority of participants noted a moderate transition of SMEs from a digital perspective, while also arguing that more government support would be needed in this area.